By Sagal Ashour – Social epidemiologist.
Somalia’s War on Somaliland: What Next?
In September 2023, amidst the conflict in Las Anod, I warned President Hassan Sheikh of Somalia against granting Federal State membership to the city of Las Anod—a region integral to Somaliland and predominantly inhabited by the Dhulbahante clan. In that article,, those very warnings became a reality as we witnessed a few weeks ago.Somalia’s Prime Minister’s recent visit to Las Anod marked a blatant violation of Somaliland’s territorial integrity—a move Somaliland’s government rightly deemed as both provocative and a departure from the path of efforts towards stability. Las Anod has long been a contested area between SSC and Somaliland, and this latest escalation only exacerbates the conflict.
The timing of the visit revealed a calculated strategy. While Somalia’s PM stirred tensions in Las Anod, Somalia’s Ambassador to the US, Dahir Hassan, brazenly announced on X: “Proud to announce Somalia is officially open for oil drilling. SSC Khatumo is now recognized as a Federal Member State…” He went on to pinpoint the Nugaal Valley Basin as the drilling site, underscoring a poorly coordinated yet deliberate attempt to escalate the conflict Somalia is waging on Somaliland’s territories. At the time of writing this article, clashes are unfolding in the rural areas near Erigavo, Somaliland. This fresh offensive by SSC militias further underscores the ongoing, highly volatile nature of this conflict, which continues to be actively fuelled by Somalia.
Somalia’s aggressive posturing is also a desperate smokescreen, distracting from its own dire situation. The country grapples with a looming threat from violent extremists, a reality underlined by the recent overrun of Aden Yabal military base, the largest military base outside Mogadishu. The attack forced Somalia’s Army Chief and other senior officials to flee the military camp, laying bare the fragility of Somalia’s security infrastructure.
Strategic towns such as Yaasoman and Aboorey, along with regions like the Shabelle Valley and Hiraan, are under siege— all the way to Afgooye. This raises questions about Somalia’s ability to counter Al-Shabaab’s relentless advance into the capital city Mogadishu.
At this critical juncture, concerns among Somalia’s citizens about the nation’s trajectory are growing louder. While some blame the security failures on the lack of political progress, others point to the absence of a coherent security policy as the root cause. It almost feels like a futile attempt to rearrange the deck chairs on the Titanic.
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