By Prof. Nassir Hussein Kahin, Geopolitics Analyst, International Affairs Writer and Managing Editor at bridgingsomaliland.com
Diplomacy in the Middle East rarely collapses quietly. More often it is suffocated by the eruption of another war.
That appears to be exactly what is happening now.
According to an exclusive report by Reuters, negotiations surrounding the Gaza initiative linked to Donald Trump have been paused as the escalating military confrontation with Iran dominates Washington’s strategic agenda.
The talks—designed to persuade Hamas to disarm in exchange for amnesty, political transition, and reconstruction funding—were always fragile. But the outbreak of a direct regional war has pushed them to the sidelines.
Reporting by Associated Press indicated that the Gaza plan envisioned a sweeping transformation of the territory: demilitarization, an international stabilization force, and billions of dollars in reconstruction.
Yet the strategy rested on a highly uncertain premise—that Iran’s influence over militant networks could be contained while diplomacy moved forward.
The new war has shattered that assumption.
Instead of weakening militant actors politically, regional escalation often strengthens them. History across the Middle East shows that conflict empowers hardliners while marginalizing moderates who might otherwise compromise.
The war against Iran may indeed reshape the regional balance of power. But it could also bury one of the few diplomatic frameworks aimed at stabilizing Gaza.
If the conflict widens further, the world may soon witness another familiar Middle Eastern outcome: a peace plan overtaken by the next war.
