By Prof. Nassir Hussein Kahin, Executive Managing Editor with reports from Intelligence Sources
Somalia’s capital is teetering on the edge of a full-scale collapse reminiscent of Kabul’s fall in 2021, as Al-Shabaab militants close in on Mogadishu from multiple fronts. Intelligence reports indicate a rapidly deteriorating security situation, raising fears that President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud could meet the same fate as Afghanistan’s Ashraf Ghani—fleeing the capital as militants overrun the government.
Escalating Threats: Presidential Convoy Targeted
On March 18, a powerful IED struck near President Mohamud’s convoy just minutes after departing Villa Somalia, the presidential palace. While the president escaped unscathed, several members of his security detail were wounded, including Deputy Chief of Staff Mohamed Amin, who remains in critical condition. The attack underscores a growing reality: Al-Shabaab is no longer just an insurgency—it is an army capable of striking the highest levels of Somalia’s leadership.
Undeterred, the president proceeded to Adan Yabal, an Al-Shabaab-contested area, only to be forced into an emergency evacuation hours later as militants launched an assault. His relocation to Moqokori—a frontline town—was met with similar threats. Such repeated high-level security breaches point to a collapse of intelligence and operational control, raising concerns over Mogadishu’s ability to defend itself in the coming weeks.
Al-Shabaab’s Tactical Shift: Encircling Mogadishu
The latest intelligence paints a grim picture. Al-Shabaab forces have advanced to within six kilometers of Mogadishu, attacking from two strategic directions:
• Northern Front: Fierce clashes near the Ministry of Defense signal a direct challenge to the capital’s core security apparatus.
• Southern Front: An attack on the Jazeera Beach checkpoint, dangerously close to the Turkish military base (TURKSOM), has rattled security officials.
Military analysts warn that these advances are part of a calculated effort to encircle Mogadishu before launching a final push. The capital’s defenses are already stretched thin, with reports of Somali National Army (SNA) desertions due to unpaid salaries, poor leadership, and low morale.
Military on the Brink: Can Mogadishu Hold?
The Somali military is showing alarming signs of collapse:
• Mass desertions among frontline soldiers, leading to reliance on undertrained police and custodial officers for critical defense roles.
• SNA units retreating from key positions due to supply shortages and lack of reinforcements.
• Growing threat to Mogadishu International Airport, a vital lifeline for international aid and military operations, which could soon come under mortar or rocket fire.
With Al-Shabaab gaining ground, Western diplomats are quietly reassessing their exit strategies. A worst-case scenario—a Kabul-style takeover—would leave Somalia’s government in tatters and set the stage for a new phase of militant rule.
The Taliban Model: Al-Shabaab’s Blueprint for Takeover
Security experts note striking similarities between Al-Shabaab’s current strategy and the Taliban’s 2021 conquest of Afghanistan:
1. Encirclement & Psychological Warfare: By surrounding Mogadishu and targeting high-profile figures, Al-Shabaab aims to weaken the government’s legitimacy before making a final push.
2. Calculated Surrender Policy: Instead of executing captured SNA troops, Al-Shabaab allows them to return home if they surrender their weapons—embedding influence within clans and eroding government resistance.
3. A Shadow Government in Waiting: Just as the Taliban had shadow governors before taking Kabul, Al-Shabaab has been consolidating control over rural Somalia, preparing for a post-government power transition.
A Ticking Clock for Somalia’s Leadership
The speed at which Al-Shabaab is advancing raises serious concerns over President Mohamud’s future. If Mogadishu falls, will he stand his ground or flee, as President Ghani did in Afghanistan?
Somalia’s allies, including the U.S., Turkey, and the African Union, must act swiftly to prevent a catastrophic power vacuum. The next few weeks will be decisive: either Mogadishu mounts a successful defense, or Somalia’s government could face its final stand.
For updates on this developing story, stay tuned.
